China and India Spearhead Asia's Most Dramatic Hydropower Crisis in Years

SINGAPORE, Sept 22 - A recent dive in Asia's hydropower production, marked by notable drops in China and India, has nudged power experts to lean more towards fossil fuels amidst fluctuating electricity demands and unpredictable weather.

Representing nearly three-quarters of Asia's electricity production and a significant chunk of its carbon footprint, both nations are also gradually turning to other green alternatives to bridge the gap created by the reduced hydropower and to cater to their soaring electricity consumption.

Weather anomalies, including blistering heatwaves and diminished rainfall, have put major Asian players, including northern China, Vietnam, and parts of India, in a tight spot with power supply in recent times.

Even as the enthusiasm for solar and wind energy picks up pace in Asia, there's been a 17.9% slump in its hydropower output during the initial seven months of the year, as per Ember, an energy research organization. Conversely, power derived from fossil fuels witnessed a 4.5% increase.

Carlos Torres Diaz of Rystad Energy remarked, "Notwithstanding the positive surge in solar and wind energy in Asia, the deficit caused by the waning hydropower has triggered a spike in fossil-fuel-based energy production." He also cited prolonged heatwaves as a factor leading to drained reservoirs, prompting the search for alternate power sources.

Recent data from China's National Bureau of Statistics reflected the steepest decline in its hydroelectricity output since 1989, with a drop of 15.9%. Meanwhile, India recorded a 6.2% dip, marking its most significant fall since 2016. Both nations compensated for this by ramping up fossil fuel electricity generation, even though their renewable energy sector also saw substantial growth.

Several Asian countries, like Vietnam, the Philippines, and Malaysia, have also felt the squeeze on their hydropower resources, primarily because of arid weather patterns. Interestingly, in some scenarios, the drop in hydropower was a conscious choice to conserve water and rejig supply strategies.

Emphasizing hydropower's unique ability to respond quickly to demand shifts, Lauri Myllyvirta from the Centre for Research on Clean Energy and Air mentioned how Chinese officials directed dam operators to prioritize stabilizing water levels during high power consumption periods due to heat.

Highlighting the surge in wind and solar energy in Asia, the data reveals a 21% uptick within seven months, occupying 13.5% of the total output.

However, while solar and wind energy have their merits, they come with their set of challenges. For instance, solar isn't available at night, and wind patterns can be tricky to predict, which can sometimes create energy shortfalls, especially in places like India.

India's impressive reduction in daytime power blackouts, despite an all-time high demand, owes much to its consistent focus on renewables over the years. Yet, the country has also explored pricier natural gas imports to ease the burden on its coal-based power sources.

Concluding on a contemplative note, Victor Vanya of EMA Solutions expressed, "With hydro's primary role being to back wind and solar energy, its unreliability might prompt India to rethink its power strategy, possibly including ramping up coal-based energy."

Source : Reuters (Reporting by Sudarshan Varadhan)